{"id":22211,"date":"2026-10-16T14:21:25","date_gmt":"2026-10-16T14:21:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/interspacemusic.com\/blog\/goldman-sachs-raises-music-revenue-forecast-to-198-1bn-by-2035\/"},"modified":"2026-10-16T14:21:25","modified_gmt":"2026-10-16T14:21:25","slug":"goldman-sachs-raises-music-revenue-forecast-to-198-1bn-by-2035","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/interspacemusic.com\/blog\/goldman-sachs-raises-music-revenue-forecast-to-198-1bn-by-2035\/","title":{"rendered":"Goldman Sachs Raises Music Revenue Forecast to $198.1bn by 2035"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Goldman Sachs<\/strong> forecasts <a href=\"https:\/\/interspacemusic.com\/blog\/global-recorded-music-retail-revenues-to-reach-121-1bn-by-2033\/\">global music industry retail revenue<\/a> will reach <strong>$198.1 billion by 2035<\/strong>, marking its first upward revision to long-term revenue projections since 2022.<\/p>\n<p>The 10th annual <em>Music in the Air<\/em> report expects growth to depend increasingly on subscription price increases, emerging markets, direct artist sales and live events as subscriber growth matures in developed markets.<\/p>\n<h2>Global revenue outlook<\/h2>\n<p>Across recorded music, publishing and live music, Goldman Sachs projects:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Global retail revenue of $112.5 billion in 2025.<\/li>\n<li>Year-on-year growth of 6.7% in 2026.<\/li>\n<li>A compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.8% from 2025 to 2035, taking revenue to $198.1 billion.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Direct sales and superfan spending<\/h2>\n<p>The report outlines a four-pillar framework for direct-to-consumer (D2C) activity, identifying <a href=\"https:\/\/interspacemusic.com\/blog\/chris-nardone-proposes-a-service-based-approach-to-artist-fan-strategy\/\">artist-owned fan relationships<\/a> and D2C platforms as sources of future revenue growth.<\/p>\n<p>It argues that these channels are delivering revenue opportunities that streaming DSP (digital service provider) super-premium tiers have struggled to realise.<\/p>\n<p>Goldman Sachs considers its previous assumption that superfans spend roughly twice as much as average listeners too conservative.<\/p>\n<p>Nearly <strong>50% of fans<\/strong> choose to <a href=\"https:\/\/interspacemusic.com\/blog\/music-fans-pay-to-support-artists-not-for-rewards\/\">pay more than an artist&#8217;s minimum price<\/a> when direct storefronts offer a pay-what-you-want option.<\/p>\n<p>The report finds that direct-to-fan release windows before wider streaming availability generate high-margin upfront sales without reducing subsequent streaming performance or royalties.<\/p>\n<p>It forecasts annual D2C industry revenue will rise from tens of millions today to hundreds of millions over the next decade.<\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.universalmusic.com\/\">Universal Music Group<\/a><\/strong> has partnerships and investments involving <strong>EVEN<\/strong>, <strong>Stationhead<\/strong> and <strong>HYBE&#8217;s Weverse<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Sony Music<\/strong> and <strong>Warner Music Group<\/strong> have established dedicated internal D2C divisions.<\/p>\n<h2>Live music revenue and capacity<\/h2>\n<p>Live music growth is expected to accelerate in 2026 after a slowdown in 2025, when comparisons were affected by <strong>Taylor Swift&#8217;s Eras Tour<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>The report&#8217;s live music revenue figures and forecasts are:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>2025: $37.4 billion, the actual\/base figure.<\/li>\n<li>2026: $39.6 billion, up 6.0% year on year.<\/li>\n<li>2030: $49.8 billion, with a five-year CAGR of 6.0%.<\/li>\n<li>2035: more than $65.0 billion, with a subsequent five-year CAGR of 5.0%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Goldman Sachs links demand to demographic factors and finds that live music has historically been less sensitive to economic cycles than broader consumer spending.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Live Nation&#8217;s Venue Nation<\/strong> pipeline includes more than <strong>768,000 seats<\/strong> of announced new capacity across arenas, amphitheaters and stadiums worldwide to accommodate artist supply and touring demand.<\/p>\n<p>Average ticket prices for the world&#8217;s Top 100 tours have risen <strong>37% since 2019<\/strong>. Stadiums and venues holding at least 30,000 people recorded the largest gains, with average prices increasing <strong>29% between 2023 and 2025<\/strong>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Goldman Sachs has raised its long-term music revenue forecast for the first time since 2022, projecting growth from subscription pricing, direct-to-fan sales and live events.","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":22212,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"csco_display_header_overlay":false,"csco_singular_sidebar":"","csco_page_header_type":"","csco_page_load_nextpost":"","csco_post_video_location":[],"csco_post_video_location_hash":"","csco_post_video_url":"","csco_post_video_bg_start_time":0,"csco_post_video_bg_end_time":0,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[515],"tags":[1471,32207,359,343,644],"class_list":["post-22211","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-tech-innovation","tag-direct-to-fan","tag-goldman-sachs","tag-live-music","tag-music-industry","tag-music-streaming","cs-entry","cs-video-wrap"],"yoast_head":"<!-- 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