{"id":22480,"date":"2026-10-19T12:00:49","date_gmt":"2026-10-19T12:00:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/interspacemusic.com\/blog\/?p=22480"},"modified":"2026-10-19T14:30:12","modified_gmt":"2026-10-19T14:30:12","slug":"goldman-sachs-raises-music-revenue-forecast-to-198-1bn-by-2035-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/interspacemusic.com\/blog\/goldman-sachs-raises-music-revenue-forecast-to-198-1bn-by-2035-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Goldman Sachs Raises Music Revenue Forecast to $198.1bn by 2035"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Goldman Sachs<\/strong> forecasts global music industry retail revenue will reach <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/interspacemusic.com\/blog\/goldman-sachs-raises-music-revenue-forecast-to-198-1bn-by-2035\/\">$198.1 billion by 2035<\/a><\/strong>, raising its long-term outlook for the first time since 2022.<\/p>\n<p>The bank\u2019s 10th annual <em>Music in the Air<\/em> report identifies subscription price increases, emerging-market expansion, direct fan sales and live events as drivers of growth as subscriber adoption matures in developed markets.<\/p>\n<h2>Global revenue outlook<\/h2>\n<p>The forecast covers recorded music, publishing and live music. Goldman Sachs projects:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Global retail revenue of <strong>$112.5 billion in 2025<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li>Year-on-year revenue growth of <strong>6.7% in 2026<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li>A compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of <strong>5.8% from 2025 to 2035<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Direct fan sales<\/h2>\n<p>The report identifies direct-to-consumer (D2C) platforms and artist-owned fan relationships as a growing revenue opportunity, comparing their progress with the difficulties streaming digital service providers (DSPs) face introducing premium tiers.<\/p>\n<p>Goldman Sachs considers its previous assumption that superfans spend roughly twice as much as an average listener too conservative. Nearly <strong>50% of fans<\/strong> pay above an artist\u2019s minimum price when direct storefronts offer that choice.<\/p>\n<p>The report describes a D2C model built around four pillars. It also finds that direct-to-fan release windows before wider streaming availability generate high-margin upfront sales without reducing subsequent streaming performance or royalties.<\/p>\n<p>Goldman Sachs forecasts annual D2C industry revenue will rise from tens of millions today to hundreds of millions over the next decade.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Universal Music Group (UMG)<\/strong> has partnerships and investments involving <strong>EVEN<\/strong>, <strong>Stationhead<\/strong> and <strong>HYBE\u2019s Weverse<\/strong>. <strong>Sony Music<\/strong> and <strong>Warner Music Group (WMG)<\/strong> have established internal D2C divisions.<\/p>\n<h2>Live music growth<\/h2>\n<p>Goldman Sachs expects live music growth to accelerate in 2026 after a slight pause in 2025, when comparisons were affected by <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.taylorswift.com\/\">Taylor Swift\u2019s<\/a><\/strong> Eras Tour.<\/p>\n<p>The report forecasts 6.0% annual growth through 2030 and 5.0% through 2035, with the following revenue figures:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>2025: <strong>$37.4 billion<\/strong>, the actual\/base figure.<\/li>\n<li>2026: <strong>$39.6 billion<\/strong>, up 6.0% year on year.<\/li>\n<li>2030: <strong>$49.8 billion<\/strong>, with a stated five-year CAGR of 6.0%.<\/li>\n<li>2035: <strong>More than $65.0 billion<\/strong>, with a stated five-year CAGR of 5.0%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The bank links live music demand to demographic factors and finds that spending on live music has historically been less cyclical than broader consumer spending.<\/p>\n<h2>Venue capacity and ticket prices<\/h2>\n<p><strong>Live Nation\u2019s Venue Nation<\/strong> pipeline includes more than <strong>768,000 seats<\/strong> of announced new capacity across arenas, amphitheaters and stadiums worldwide.<\/p>\n<p>Average ticket prices for the world\u2019s Top 100 tours have risen <strong>37% since 2019<\/strong>. Venues holding at least 30,000 people recorded the largest increases, with average prices rising <strong>29% between 2023 and 2025<\/strong>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Goldman Sachs has raised its long-term music industry revenue forecast, citing subscription price increases, direct-to-fan sales and live music spending.","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":22481,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"csco_display_header_overlay":false,"csco_singular_sidebar":"","csco_page_header_type":"","csco_page_load_nextpost":"","csco_post_video_location":[],"csco_post_video_location_hash":"","csco_post_video_url":"","csco_post_video_bg_start_time":0,"csco_post_video_bg_end_time":0,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[512],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22480","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-industry-news","cs-entry","cs-video-wrap"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.7 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