Global recorded-music retail revenues will climb to $121.1 billion by 2033, up from $74.3 billion in 2025, according to new projections from consultancy Midia Research.
The forecast, which measures retail rather than trade revenues, also predicts that trade revenues for labels will reach $62.7 billion in 2033, growing more slowly than the retail total. The International Federation of the Phonographic Industry (IFPI) reported global trade revenues of $31.7 billion for 2025.
India to become third-largest subscriber market
Midia expects India to rank as the world’s third-largest market by music subscribers by 2033, behind only China and the US. However, it will not appear in the top five for subscription revenues. The same five markets are forecast to lead that ranking as in 2025:
- US
- China
- UK
- Germany
- Japan
Fan economy and streaming revenues
The report projects that ‘fan economy’ revenues, a broad category covering labels’ share of physical music sales, merchandise, live events, brand partnerships and streaming from social, fitness and gaming platforms outside traditional digital service providers (DSPs), will rise from $11.3 billion in 2025 to $18.5 billion in 2033.
For comparison, Goldman Sachs’s ‘Music in the Air’ report, published last year, forecast global trade recorded-music revenues of $55 billion by 2035, with retail streaming revenues alone reaching $81.1 billion, of which $42.2 billion would flow to rightsholders.
