Global recorded-music retail sales are on track to reach $56.8 billion by 2030, according to new projections from research firm Omdia, with streaming subscriptions and China’s rapid market expansion providing the primary momentum.
Omdia’s definition of retail sales encompasses consumer spending on physical and digital music, plus trade revenue from advertising, performance rights and sync. The forecast sees the market climbing to $48.3 billion in 2026, surpassing $50 billion in 2027, and hitting $56.8 billion by the end of the decade.
“By the end of 2028, the number of years in which retail revenue has grown this century will exceed the number of years in which it has declined,” Omdia stated.
Streaming subscriptions and physical sales
Annual global spending on streaming subscriptions is expected to grow 7.2% this year to $30.5 billion, and to reach $37 billion by 2030. Physical format spending is also forecast to rise over the next five years, but annual growth will decelerate to just 1.9% in 2030, when physical sales are projected to total $8.3 billion.
Combined audio and video advertising revenue is projected to increase 5.6% this year to $5.3 billion, and to climb to $6.2 billion by 2030.
China’s ascent in the global rankings
Omdia’s report also highlights the continued rise of China, which overtook Germany in 2025 to become the world’s fourth-largest recorded-music market, according to the IFPI (International Federation of the Phonographic Industry). The firm expects China to surpass the UK in 2028 and Japan in 2029, making it the second-largest market behind the United States.
“The country has long been viewed as a major emerging opportunity, and these forecasts show it is now delivering meaningful value to the global music business,” said Simon Dyson, principal analyst at Omdia.
