Goldman Sachs forecasts global music industry retail revenue will reach $198.1 billion by 2035, raising its long-term outlook for the first time since 2022.
The bank’s 10th annual Music in the Air report identifies subscription price increases, emerging-market expansion, direct fan sales and live events as drivers of growth as subscriber adoption matures in developed markets.
Global revenue outlook
The forecast covers recorded music, publishing and live music. Goldman Sachs projects:
- Global retail revenue of $112.5 billion in 2025.
- Year-on-year revenue growth of 6.7% in 2026.
- A compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.8% from 2025 to 2035.
Direct fan sales
The report identifies direct-to-consumer (D2C) platforms and artist-owned fan relationships as a growing revenue opportunity, comparing their progress with the difficulties streaming digital service providers (DSPs) face introducing premium tiers.
Goldman Sachs considers its previous assumption that superfans spend roughly twice as much as an average listener too conservative. Nearly 50% of fans pay above an artist’s minimum price when direct storefronts offer that choice.
The report describes a D2C model built around four pillars. It also finds that direct-to-fan release windows before wider streaming availability generate high-margin upfront sales without reducing subsequent streaming performance or royalties.
Goldman Sachs forecasts annual D2C industry revenue will rise from tens of millions today to hundreds of millions over the next decade.
Universal Music Group (UMG) has partnerships and investments involving EVEN, Stationhead and HYBE’s Weverse. Sony Music and Warner Music Group (WMG) have established internal D2C divisions.
Live music growth
Goldman Sachs expects live music growth to accelerate in 2026 after a slight pause in 2025, when comparisons were affected by Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour.
The report forecasts 6.0% annual growth through 2030 and 5.0% through 2035, with the following revenue figures:
- 2025: $37.4 billion, the actual/base figure.
- 2026: $39.6 billion, up 6.0% year on year.
- 2030: $49.8 billion, with a stated five-year CAGR of 6.0%.
- 2035: More than $65.0 billion, with a stated five-year CAGR of 5.0%.
The bank links live music demand to demographic factors and finds that spending on live music has historically been less cyclical than broader consumer spending.
Venue capacity and ticket prices
Live Nation’s Venue Nation pipeline includes more than 768,000 seats of announced new capacity across arenas, amphitheaters and stadiums worldwide.
Average ticket prices for the world’s Top 100 tours have risen 37% since 2019. Venues holding at least 30,000 people recorded the largest increases, with average prices rising 29% between 2023 and 2025.
