Goldman Sachs forecasts global music industry retail revenue will reach $198.1 billion by 2035, marking its first upward revision to long-term revenue projections since 2022.
The 10th annual Music in the Air report expects growth to depend increasingly on subscription price increases, emerging markets, direct artist sales and live events as subscriber growth matures in developed markets.
Global revenue outlook
Across recorded music, publishing and live music, Goldman Sachs projects:
- Global retail revenue of $112.5 billion in 2025.
- Year-on-year growth of 6.7% in 2026.
- A compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.8% from 2025 to 2035, taking revenue to $198.1 billion.
Direct sales and superfan spending
The report outlines a four-pillar framework for direct-to-consumer (D2C) activity, identifying artist-owned fan relationships and D2C platforms as sources of future revenue growth.
It argues that these channels are delivering revenue opportunities that streaming DSP (digital service provider) super-premium tiers have struggled to realise.
Goldman Sachs considers its previous assumption that superfans spend roughly twice as much as average listeners too conservative.
Nearly 50% of fans choose to pay more than an artist’s minimum price when direct storefronts offer a pay-what-you-want option.
The report finds that direct-to-fan release windows before wider streaming availability generate high-margin upfront sales without reducing subsequent streaming performance or royalties.
It forecasts annual D2C industry revenue will rise from tens of millions today to hundreds of millions over the next decade.
Universal Music Group has partnerships and investments involving EVEN, Stationhead and HYBE’s Weverse.
Sony Music and Warner Music Group have established dedicated internal D2C divisions.
Live music revenue and capacity
Live music growth is expected to accelerate in 2026 after a slowdown in 2025, when comparisons were affected by Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour.
The report’s live music revenue figures and forecasts are:
- 2025: $37.4 billion, the actual/base figure.
- 2026: $39.6 billion, up 6.0% year on year.
- 2030: $49.8 billion, with a five-year CAGR of 6.0%.
- 2035: more than $65.0 billion, with a subsequent five-year CAGR of 5.0%.
Goldman Sachs links demand to demographic factors and finds that live music has historically been less sensitive to economic cycles than broader consumer spending.
Live Nation’s Venue Nation pipeline includes more than 768,000 seats of announced new capacity across arenas, amphitheaters and stadiums worldwide to accommodate artist supply and touring demand.
Average ticket prices for the world’s Top 100 tours have risen 37% since 2019. Stadiums and venues holding at least 30,000 people recorded the largest gains, with average prices increasing 29% between 2023 and 2025.
