A new analysis of the music catalogue market by French analyst and journalist Philippe Astor finds that valuation multiples for iconic assets have settled at 12–17× annual net royalty income, a level well below the 2021 peak but far from a collapse. The report arrives amid a wave of consolidation that has reshaped music rights ownership in a matter of weeks.
Deal Activity Reshapes Ownership
Astor’s report was published shortly after three major transactions were announced within a 50-day span: Sony Music’s acquisition of the Recognition Music Group catalogue, the planned merger of BMG and Concord, and Primary Wave‘s purchase of Kobalt. Together, these deals carry a combined value exceeding $19 billion. Astor described the sequence as “condensing a wholesale recomposition of who owns recorded music and publishing rights, at what price, and under whose capital” across the broader market.
Multiples Settle After 2021 Peak
The report states that “Multiples have stabilized around 12–17× on iconic catalogs, no return to the 2021 peak (19.4×), no collapse.” This finding is supported by separate data from Shot Tower Capital and Duetti. In catalogue valuation, a multiple represents the multiplier applied to annual net royalty income; for example, a catalogue generating $10 million in yearly royalties would be valued at $120 million on a 12× multiple or $170 million on a 17× multiple.
Publishing Concentration and Geographic Shift
Astor also highlights increasing concentration in music publishing, projecting that the three major labels plus the combined BMG-Concord entity will command a 75% market share by 2027. Additionally, the report identifies a shift in growth “off its historical center of gravity toward non-Anglophone geographies: India, South Korea, Latin America and the Gulf.”
The 45-page report is available in French and English editions.
